中原(工商铺)：料2026年首季香港工商铺价格最多跌10%

Group 1: Overall Market Performance - The overall transaction volume for commercial properties is expected to remain strong, with approximately 940 transactions and a total value of about 12.6 billion HKD in Q1 2026, showing an increase from Q4 2025, although prices may decline by 0% to 10% [1] - The rental market is projected to see around 3,600 transactions in Q1 2026, but rental levels are expected to remain soft, with a potential decline of 0% to 15% [1] Group 2: Office Market Insights - The office market is still buyer-driven, with prices under pressure; it is anticipated that office prices will remain stable in 2026, with some areas having a potential decline of about 5% [1] - Approximately 240 transactions are expected in the office market for Q1 2026, with a total transaction value of around 6 billion HKD; rental transactions are projected to be about 1,500, with rental trends mirroring the price trends, maintaining a decline within 5% [1] Group 3: Industrial Property Market - The industrial property market is expected to see around 500 transactions in Q1 2026, with a total value of approximately 3.6 billion HKD, and prices are expected to remain stable, although some areas may experience a decline of about 5% [2] - The rental performance is anticipated to improve, with around 1,200 transactions expected, and rental trends are projected to decline by 0% to 5% [2] Group 4: Retail Market Outlook - The retail market is facing challenges due to an oversupply of retail spaces and low rental levels, leading to a weak market sentiment; approximately 200 transactions are expected in Q1 2026, with a total value of about 3 billion HKD, and prices may decline by 5% to 10% [2] - Rental transactions in the retail sector are expected to reach around 900, with core area rents projected to decline by about 10%, while non-core area rents may decline by 10% to 15% [2]