美国第三季度GDP料保持强劲，但经济学家称“难以持续”

Economic Growth - The US economy is expected to grow at a fast pace in the third quarter, driven by robust consumer spending and business investment, although the momentum appears to be weakening due to rising living costs and a recent government shutdown [1][7] - The US Department of Commerce is set to release the preliminary GDP data for the third quarter, with an estimated annualized growth rate of 3.3%, down from 3.8% in the second quarter [2][8] - Consumer spending, which accounts for over two-thirds of US economic activity, is projected to accelerate from a growth rate of 2.5% in the second quarter, largely due to preemptive purchases of electric vehicles before a tax credit expiration [2][8] Consumer Behavior - Low-income households are experiencing financial strain, allocating more of their budgets to groceries and reducing spending on dining out, clothing, travel, and hotels, reflecting limited capacity for alternative consumption in a high-inflation environment [3][8] - In contrast, high-income households are increasing their spending on dining, travel, entertainment, and hotel accommodations [4][9] Inflation and Costs - The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index is expected to grow at a rate of 2.8% in the last quarter, up from 2.1% in the previous quarter, indicating an acceleration in inflation [5][9] - The Federal Reserve has lowered the benchmark overnight interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.50%-3.75%, signaling that borrowing costs are unlikely to decrease further in the short term as policymakers await clearer labor market and inflation trends [5][9] Business Investment - Business investment is contributing to GDP growth, particularly in artificial intelligence-related intellectual property and equipment spending, although construction spending, including factories, may have contracted for the seventh consecutive quarter [5][10] - The recent government shutdown is expected to negatively impact fourth-quarter GDP by 1.0 to 2.0 percentage points, with an estimated irrecoverable loss of $7 billion to $14 billion [2][8] Trade and Supply Chain - The narrowing trade deficit may also support economic growth, with tariffs causing significant fluctuations in imports, leading to rare levels of impact on GDP [6][10] - Economic experts express differing views on the impact of inventory and government spending on GDP, with some anticipating a slight contribution while others expect neutral effects [10]