中金：印尼RKAB目标收紧 有望支撑镍价上行

Core Viewpoint - Indonesia's government has set a nickel production target of 250 million tons for 2026, significantly down from the 379 million tons set for 2025, indicating a tightening of nickel mining quotas [1][2] Group 1: Industry Impact - Indonesia is the world's largest nickel supplier, with nickel reserves of approximately 55 million metric tons, accounting for 42% of global reserves, and a production of about 220 million metric tons, representing 59% of global output [1] - The government's policies, including the ban on raw ore exports and nickel quota approvals, significantly influence nickel prices and the industry [1][3] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The proposed production target of 250 million tons for 2026 represents a 17% reduction compared to 2025, which could lead to a marginal improvement in the nickel supply-demand balance and potentially drive nickel prices upward [2] - The tightening of nickel quotas is expected to have a minimal impact on Indonesia's economy while increasing tax revenue and enhancing the value of local resources [2] Group 3: Long-term Price Stability - The reduction in production targets aims to prevent further declines in nickel prices, reflecting Indonesia's intention to strengthen its control over resources and stabilize long-term nickel price expectations [3] - The tightening of production quotas is seen as supportive of a mid-to-long-term price floor for nickel, with potential upward price movements if prices remain low [3] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The tightening of nickel quotas is expected to improve the supply-demand landscape, supporting mid-to-long-term nickel price stability and potentially enhancing profitability for producers [4] - The acceleration of solid-state battery industrialization may increase the penetration of ternary batteries, presenting a revaluation opportunity for nickel and cobalt companies [4]