住建部研判未来五年楼市新趋势

Core Viewpoint - The increasing proportion of second-hand housing transactions is recognized as a trend for the future, suggesting that the new housing market and the second-hand housing market should be viewed as a whole [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The national housing and urban construction work conference highlighted the significant changes in the supply-demand relationship in the real estate market, indicating a shift towards a stock development phase where new housing transactions decline while second-hand housing transactions increase [1] - According to a report by KPMG China, residential property sales area and investment completion amounts for the first 11 months of 2025 are only 48% and 62% of the same period in 2021, respectively, indicating an ongoing oversupply in the real estate market [2] - As of November 2025, the new and second-hand housing price indices have decreased by 12% and 21%, respectively, compared to the peak in August 2021 [2] Group 2: Inventory and Supply - The inventory pressure in the housing market has shown signs of marginal improvement, with the National Bureau of Statistics reporting a continuous month-on-month decrease in the area of unsold commercial housing for nine consecutive months [2] - The expected inventory-to-sales ratio for the top ten major cities is projected to remain high at 21 months by the end of 2025, indicating a persistent inventory challenge [2] - The conference emphasized the need to stabilize the real estate market by controlling increments, reducing inventory, and optimizing supply, particularly through the acquisition of existing properties for affordable housing [3] Group 3: Policy Measures - The conference outlined specific measures to revitalize existing housing stock, including urban renewal and the acquisition of existing properties for use as affordable housing, dormitories, and talent housing [3] - Future work will focus on preventing and mitigating real estate company debt risks, better meeting reasonable funding needs of homebuyers, and integrating "stabilizing the market" with "promoting transformation" [3] - The meeting also called for reforms in the housing provident fund system and the establishment of a new model for real estate development, emphasizing the importance of policy support and reform innovation to ensure a smooth transition from old to new models [4][5]