两大“痼疾”掣肘，2026年英国经济增长将继续疲弱

Economic Overview - The UK economy is projected to continue its weak growth into 2026, with various macroeconomic indicators signaling a downturn [1][7] - Recent retail data shows a decline in social retail sales, with November figures down 0.1% month-on-month, following a 0.9% drop in October, indicating a pessimistic outlook among consumers [2][7] Labor Market - The unemployment rate in the UK for August to October 2025 stands at 5.1%, higher than the same period last year and the previous three months, reflecting a weakening labor market [2][3] - Employee wage growth is slowing, with a year-on-year increase of 4.6% excluding bonuses and 4.7% including bonuses for the same period, indicating further labor market challenges [2][3] Inflation and Economic Sentiment - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) dropped from 3.6% in October to 3.2% in November, exceeding market expectations, but concerns about inflationary pressures remain [3][7] - The Bank of England's Deputy Governor expressed worries about upward risks to inflation, suggesting a cautious approach to interest rate cuts [3][7] Investment Climate - Business investment remains low due to increased national insurance tax rates, which have raised costs for employers and dampened investment enthusiasm [5][7] - Predictions indicate that business investment growth will decline from 3.5% in 2025 to 2.2% in 2026, highlighting ongoing economic challenges [5][7] Consumer Confidence - Consumer confidence remains low, with a slight improvement in December's index from -19 to -17, but overall sentiment is still negative due to cost-of-living pressures and economic uncertainty [6][7] - Retail sales have seen a continuous decline over three months, reflecting persistent consumer pessimism [6][7] Economic Growth Forecasts - Various research institutions have downgraded their growth forecasts for the UK economy, with predictions of 1.4% growth in 2025 and only 1% in 2026 from KPMG [7] - The British Chambers of Commerce also forecasts a similar trend, with growth expected to be 1.2% in 2026, indicating a lack of effective government measures to stimulate the economy [7]