国盛证券：关注滔搏(06110)品牌伙伴去库和上新节奏 维持“买入”评级

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guosheng Securities indicates that Tabo (06110) is a leading company in the downstream channel of sports footwear and apparel, with improvements in retail efficiency driven by store structure optimization and digital transformation, alongside effective membership operations that enhance user loyalty. The company is expected to achieve net profits of 1.229 billion, 1.379 billion, and 1.533 billion yuan for FY2026-FY2028, with a current price corresponding to a FY2026 PE of 14 times, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] Group 1 - In FY2026 Q3, the company experienced a high single-digit decline in total sales, with direct store sales area decreasing by 1.3% quarter-on-quarter and 13.4% year-on-year [1] - The decline in sales is attributed to store closures, with a net closure of 332 stores in FY2026 H1, resulting in a total of 4,688 stores as of the end of November 2025 [1] - The company anticipates that offline sales will continue to face pressure due to fluctuations in consumer traffic and market competition, although it expects a reduction in net store closures in FY2026 H2 compared to FY2026 H1 [1] Group 2 - The company is expected to maintain growth in e-commerce sales due to its strong operational capabilities, enhancing its e-commerce system by leveraging offline stores and expanding into various online channels [2] - The company is focusing on new brand and business layout in the outdoor and running segments, collaborating with brands like Norda, soar, Ciele, and Norrøna to meet differentiated consumer demands [3] - The company has established the running ecosystem brand ektos and opened a store in Shanghai, which gained attention during the Shanghai Marathon [3] Group 3 - For FY2026, the company is projected to see a decline in net profit, with an estimated revenue drop of 7% and a net profit decrease of around 4% due to a volatile consumer environment impacting terminal sales [4] - The main brand Adidas is expected to perform relatively well in the Greater China region, with a 6% revenue growth on a currency-neutral basis for the period of July to September 2025 [4] - Nike is currently undergoing inventory destocking in the Greater China region, with a 16% revenue decline on a currency-neutral basis for the period of September to November 2025, but is expected to improve its operational performance in the long term [4]