铸造铝偏弱震荡，现货交投氛围尚可

Core Viewpoint - The casting aluminum market is experiencing a weak trend, influenced by macroeconomic factors and geopolitical tensions, leading to increased market volatility and cautious trading behavior [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The main contract for casting aluminum alloy (2602) closed at 21,265 yuan, down 35 yuan, with a decline of 0.16% [1]. - The trading volume for the day was 5,739 lots, an increase of 1,145 lots, while the open interest decreased by 1,166 lots to 16,018 lots [1]. - The average price for casting aluminum alloy ingots (A356.2) was reported at 23,300 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, with rising demand from recycling aluminum enterprises, which supports the price of scrap aluminum [2]. - Despite some price declines in certain aluminum alloy varieties, the purchasing enthusiasm from downstream enterprises has increased, indicating a relatively active market atmosphere [2]. - The overall industry profit remains low due to high inventory levels and a surplus supply environment, despite the strong cost support from scrap aluminum prices [2]. Group 3: Macroeconomic Influences - Geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine situation, have heightened market risk aversion [1]. - The U.S. government's actions regarding Venezuela have further escalated market tensions, contributing to a cautious outlook among traders [1]. - The Federal Reserve's cautious stance on further interest rate cuts adds to the uncertainty in the market, particularly during the low trading activity typical of the Christmas week [1].