长江有色：23日铅价小涨 下游谨慎观望刚需补库

Core Viewpoint - The lead market is experiencing a "tight balance" in supply and a "structural transformation" in demand, influenced by various factors including geopolitical risks and technological shifts in battery applications [3]. Group 1: Market Performance - Today's Shanghai lead futures saw a slight increase, with the main contract opening at 16,920 yuan, reaching a high of 17,025 yuan and closing at 16,995 yuan, up 40 yuan or 0.24% [1]. - The latest price for London lead is reported at 1,977.5 USD, an increase of 7.5 USD [1]. - The average price for domestic lead in the ccmn market is reported at 16,950 yuan, with a slight increase of 10 yuan [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply side is affected by a sharp reduction in imported lead concentrate, leading to tight resource availability, while high prices of by-products like silver and antimony are driving smelters to maintain high operating rates [3]. - The recycling of lead from waste batteries faces challenges due to an inefficient recovery system, resulting in a year-on-year contraction in production [3]. - Traditional demand from lead-acid batteries remains stable but is under pressure from the technological advancements of lithium batteries [3]. - Emerging demand from the photovoltaic glass industry is rapidly increasing, becoming a key structural increment in lead demand [3]. Group 3: Short-term Outlook - In the short term, the lead market is expected to maintain a weak and stable oscillation, with northern regions experiencing tightened supply and southern markets showing limited demand [4]. - Traders are cautious, with a reluctance to sell, leading to relatively firm pricing, while downstream buyers are primarily focused on essential purchases [4].