专访世界黄金协会中国区CEO：投资黄金要建立“战略底仓”思维

Core Insights - The spot gold price has surpassed $4,400 per ounce for the first time in 2025, with a cumulative increase of nearly 68%, significantly outperforming the S&P 500 index's 17% rise during the same period, solidifying gold's status as a top-performing asset in 2025 [1] Group 1: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The underlying logic for the rise in gold prices is attributed to a potential crisis in the credibility of the US dollar, which is seen as a driving force for increased gold allocations by central banks, institutions, and individual investors [2] - Key factors affecting gold prices include US monetary policy represented by real interest rates, international geopolitical conflicts, market dynamics of supply and demand, and other special factors [2] Group 2: Outlook for 2026 - Institutional investors maintain an optimistic outlook for 2026, with predictions influenced by central bank gold purchases and potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [3] - Various macroeconomic scenarios predict gold price fluctuations ranging from a 5% decline to a 30% increase, depending on economic conditions [3][5] Group 3: Central Bank Gold Purchases - The trend of central banks purchasing gold has continued into 2025, with an expected total purchase volume of 750 to 900 tons for the year, indicating a broadening participation beyond developing countries [6][7] - Despite high gold prices potentially reducing the quantity of gold purchased, the total monetary investment by central banks remains substantial, reinforcing gold's recognition as a reserve asset [7] Group 4: Market Observations - In the Chinese market, there is a stark contrast in consumer behavior, with a surge in physical gold investment demand while gold jewelry consumption is under pressure due to high prices and tax policy changes [8] - Retail investment demand for gold in China has surpassed jewelry demand for the first time since the establishment of the Shanghai Gold Exchange in 2002, indicating a shift in consumer preferences [8] Group 5: Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to view gold as a strategic asset rather than a speculative tool, suggesting a long-term allocation of 5% to 15% of investable assets to gold [9] - New investors are encouraged to adopt a gradual investment approach rather than waiting for ideal price points, emphasizing the importance of safety in gold investments [9]