【环球财经】星展银行：黄金长期牛市趋势未改 2026年下半年目标价看高至5100美元

Group 1: Gold Market Outlook - The long-term bullish trend for gold remains intact despite recent price corrections, with a target price of $5,100 per ounce expected in the second half of 2026 due to currency devaluation risks, geopolitical uncertainties, and central bank gold purchases [1][2] - The report highlights a significant rebound in gold prices, which rose by 32.4% from August to October 2025, followed by a nearly 10% correction, viewed as a healthy profit-taking phase rather than a shift in the long-term upward trend [2] - Central banks are projected to purchase between 750 to 900 tons of gold in 2025, continuing a trend of over 1,000 tons annually from 2022 to 2024, with the total value of gold reserves held by central banks surpassing that of U.S. Treasury bonds [2] Group 2: Alternative Assets and Private Equity - The report emphasizes the end of the "Easy Alpha" era, suggesting that investors should focus on alternative assets, particularly private equity, which currently shows a valuation gap of 4.1 times compared to public markets, the most attractive level in a decade [3] - The anticipated decline in financing costs due to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts is expected to boost IPO and merger activities, with a revival in exit activities projected for 2026 [3] Group 3: Investment Strategies - To address the liquidity challenges associated with alternative assets, the report recommends using "Evergreen Funds" as a tool for allocation, which can provide early returns and redemption flexibility while achieving comparable long-term returns to traditional closed-end funds [4] - A mixed investment portfolio that includes both public and alternative assets is advised, utilizing private assets to smooth market volatility and employing statistical techniques for more accurate risk assessment to enhance risk-adjusted returns [4]