圣诞购物季只是开始! 瑞银押注2026年美国软线零售“估值扩张”叙事

Core Viewpoint - UBS analysts express optimism for the "softlines retail" sector in the U.S., predicting strong consumer willingness during the upcoming holiday shopping season and into 2026, following a better-than-expected performance during the 2025 Thanksgiving and Black Friday shopping period [1][2]. Group 1: Holiday Shopping Performance - The Thanksgiving shopping season showed a positive trend, with a higher percentage of shoppers planning to spend more compared to those spending less, with about 70% of respondents intending to participate in post-Christmas promotions [2][5]. - UBS's December survey revealed that 27% of respondents plan to spend more during the holiday shopping season compared to last year, while 23.2% plan to spend less, resulting in a net positive difference of approximately 380 basis points, which is better than the 11-year average of 300 basis points [2][5]. Group 2: Consumer Sentiment and Financial Health - UBS highlights an improvement in U.S. consumer balance sheets and financial security, with 42% of respondents feeling financially secure, an increase of 120 basis points from the previous month [7]. - The average estimated financial assets (excluding housing) among respondents is approximately $472,000, reflecting an 8% year-over-year increase and a 6% quarter-over-quarter increase, indicating a potential underestimation of the wealth effect on U.S. consumer spending [8]. Group 3: Retail Sector Outlook for 2026 - UBS predicts a strong start for the North American shopping season in 2026, with a significant increase in softlines consumer willingness, expected to rise by 2.9% compared to December 2024, indicating a 535 basis point acceleration [5][17]. - The report identifies three preferred segments within the softlines retail sector for 2026: brand-driven apparel and footwear, off-price retailers, and gift-related categories, particularly apparel and jewelry [13][15]. Group 4: Recommended Stocks - UBS emphasizes that concerns about low-income consumer spending are mitigated by the fact that middle and high-income consumers contribute approximately 90% of industry spending, making their spending intentions more critical for the softlines retail sector [16]. - The report lists preferred stocks in the softlines retail sector, including ONON, RL, and others, indicating a bullish outlook despite the sector's P/E ratios being above historical averages [17].