煤焦油市场年末为何降温？

Core Insights - The domestic coal tar market experienced a recovery phase since mid-November, peaking at a transaction price of 3460 yuan per ton in early December, reflecting a 14% increase month-on-month. However, by mid-December, prices softened to around 3300 yuan due to various factors, including a decline in downstream market prices and increased production capacity utilization [2][3]. Group 1: Market Trends - The decline in the coal tar market is attributed to the weakening of the downstream processing industry, with significant price drops observed in products such as carbon black and coal pitch. For instance, as of December 18, prices for these products fell by 1.7% to 5.5% week-on-week [3]. - The core product, coal pitch, has seen a price drop, which has weakened the market's only support point, leading to a broader decline in coal tar prices across regions [3]. Group 2: Supply and Production - The supply side remains loose, with the capacity utilization rate of domestic coking enterprises exceeding 73%, a 2% increase from November. This stability in production levels contributes to a steady output of coal tar [4]. - The concentration in the coal tar industry has increased, with leading companies achieving significant economies of scale, with some facilities reaching annual production capacities of over 950,000 tons [4]. Group 3: Trade Dynamics - Traders' actions are significantly influencing market volatility, with a growing wait-and-see attitude among them. This has led to a notable decrease in auction participation and a downward adjustment in transaction prices [6]. - Despite the current bearish market sentiment, the overall supply of coal tar is expected to remain stable, with downstream processing enterprises maintaining relatively high operational rates [6].