ZFX山海证券:圣诞效应回归 BTC或借力股金涨势反弹

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the historical "Santa Claus Rally" effect on Wall Street is seen as a last hope for market bulls, especially as Bitcoin faces significant challenges in Q4 2025 [1][3] - Traditional financial market seasonal trends can inject much-needed liquidity and confidence into the digital asset market [1][3] Group 2 - The S&P 500 index has a high probability of rising during the last five trading days of the year into the new year, with a win rate of 75% and an average return of 0.58% since 2005 [5] - Given the S&P 500's underperformance in the past two Christmas cycles, the likelihood of a mean reversion and rebound this year is significantly increased [5] - The correlation between digital assets and traditional equity assets is strengthening as institutional funds increasingly engage through ETFs [5] - If the holiday buying in the U.S. stock market occurs as expected, bullish sentiment is likely to spill over into the cryptocurrency sector [5] - Bitcoin's average increase of 7.9% during the Christmas period indicates its potential for explosive growth, despite varied performances in previous years [5] Group 3 - Gold is highlighted as a benchmark for safe-haven and anti-inflation assets, showing particularly strong performance at year-end [6] - Since 2005, gold has demonstrated impressive cumulative returns during the Christmas period, currently priced at $4,400 per ounce [6] - Bitcoin, trading at a 30% discount compared to its peak, is viewed as having significant upside potential in the context of rising traditional financial assets [6] - Investors are advised to consider the synergistic effects of asset allocation during the year-end period [6]