Moneta Markets外汇:比特币波动加剧跌破8.8万美元

Core Insights - The cryptocurrency market is experiencing significant downward volatility as a record options settlement day approaches, with Bitcoin (BTC) falling below $88,000 and Ethereum (ETH) failing to hold above $3,000 [1][3] - Defensive positions are increasing, and market liquidity is tightening, indicating a more cautious attitude among investors as they approach 2026 [1][3] Market Dynamics - The derivatives exchange Deribit is set to witness the largest options expiration in history, with over $28.5 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum options set to settle, representing more than half of the platform's open interest, which could have a substantial impact on the spot market [1][3] - Market analysis suggests that the end-of-year expiration in 2025 signifies a shift from pure speculation to a policy-driven "super cycle" [2][4] Options Market Insights - There is a significant "max pain" point for Bitcoin around $96,000, with approximately $1.2 billion in open interest for put options below $85,000, which may exert additional pressure on spot prices during increased selling [2][5] - Despite expectations for Bitcoin's mid-term outlook to reach between $100,000 and $125,000, the rising costs of protective tools in the short term cannot be overlooked [2][5] - Current options skew data indicates that traders are not opting to take profits but are extending defensive positions to manage potential volatility [2][5]