FPG财盛国际:基差套利空间收窄 机构资金流向变动

Group 1 - The cryptocurrency market has experienced a significant shift, with Binance surpassing CME in Bitcoin futures open interest (OI) [1][3] - Binance's Bitcoin futures open interest has risen to approximately 125,000 BTC, valued at $11.2 billion, while CME's has decreased to around 123,000 BTC, marking a low since February 2024 [1][3] - The decline in CME's open interest is primarily due to the shrinking profit margins in basis trading, with the annualized basis rate dropping from 15% to around 5% [1][3] Group 2 - Retail trading platforms, particularly Binance, show stronger resilience as participants prefer directional trading over complex hedging strategies, maintaining stable positions amid volatility [2][4] - The rise of CME was largely driven by institutional accumulation ahead of the spot ETF launch, but this policy-driven advantage is gradually diminishing as the market matures [2][4] - The convergence of spot and futures prices reflects an increasingly efficient market, indicating that while institutional demand may be weakening, it does not signify a loss of appeal for digital assets [2][4]