兴证策略张启尧团队：历史上的牛市躁动行情有何规律？

Core Viewpoint - The article analyzes the historical patterns of stock market rally initiations since 2008, categorizing them based on their starting times and catalysts, highlighting the significance of macroeconomic policies and market conditions in triggering these rallies [1][3]. Group 1: Historical Rally Patterns - The article identifies three main categories of rally initiation times: 1. January-February starts, which are the most common for historical rallies [1][3]. 2. November starts, which require a clear shift in macroeconomic policy [1][3]. 3. December starts, which occur after strong market performance but face disturbances that, once resolved, lead to a rally [1][3]. Group 2: Key Factors for Rally Initiation - The analysis of the rallies in 2017, 2019, and 2020 reveals that they often began despite lacking strong macroeconomic policy shifts, indicating that market sentiment can drive early rallies [15][20]. - Important factors contributing to the initiation of these rallies include: 1. Positive policy signals from year-end meetings that bolster market sentiment [15][20]. 2. Improvement in economic fundamentals and corporate earnings, with no significant disturbances in economic data or earnings forecasts [15][20]. 3. Loose monetary policy and ample liquidity supporting market growth [15][20]. Group 3: Signals for Rally Initiation - The article outlines three main types of events that can signal the start of a rally: 1. Resolution of prior uncertainties that have suppressed the market [19]. 2. Implementation of easing policies such as rate cuts that can ignite market enthusiasm [19]. 3. Key economic data that confirms improving fundamentals, enhancing investor participation [19]. Group 4: Industry Performance During Rallies - The analysis indicates that during the rallies of 2017, 2019, and 2020, the leading sectors did not experience significant shifts, maintaining a correlation with the performance trends established earlier in the year [20]. - The leading sectors during these rallies included: 1. In 2017, low-valuation value stocks and blue-chip companies dominated the market [20]. 2. In 2019, the TMT sector continued to thrive, with the rise of the new energy industry [20]. 3. In 2020, the focus remained on high-end manufacturing and consumption, with some resource sectors benefiting from favorable monetary policies [20].