银行净息差现企稳迹象，普通人理财要换思路了？

Core Viewpoint - The central bank is strengthening its guidance on deposit and loan interest rates to prevent excessive competition among market institutions, which could further lower effective market rates and enhance the effectiveness of monetary policy [1][41]. Group 1: Interest Rate Trends - Consumer loan products with interest rates below 3% are nearly extinct, and 5-year large-denomination certificates of deposit with rates above 1.55% are also disappearing [1][41]. - The lower limit for corporate loan rates is approximately 2.1%-2.2%, aligning closely with the after-tax adjusted yield of government bonds of the same maturity, while the lower limit for retail loan rates, including mortgages, is around 3% [3][53]. - The average weighted interest rate for new corporate loans and personal housing loans is around 3.1%, which is historically low [48][55]. Group 2: Monetary Policy and Economic Context - The central bank emphasizes maintaining a reasonable interest rate relationship, considering it one of the five key interest rate relationships that require attention [4][44]. - The overall interest rate level in China is at a historical low, with the central bank's policy rate at 1.4% and the 1-year and 5-year Loan Prime Rates (LPR) at 3% and 3.5%, respectively [9][48]. - The central economic work conference indicates that the monetary policy will continue to implement a moderately loose stance, with potential for slight rate cuts in the first half of 2026 [10][49]. Group 3: Banking Sector Dynamics - The net interest margin of commercial banks has been under pressure, declining from over 2% to around 1.42% as of the third quarter of 2025, which is a historical low [18][56]. - Banks are facing challenges in maintaining a sustainable net interest margin due to intense competition and the phenomenon of "involution" in the lending market [20][22]. - Recent reports indicate that banks are stabilizing their loan rates, with some banks encouraging slight increases in loan rates as part of their key performance indicators [55][56]. Group 4: Regulatory Actions and Market Reactions - The central bank has taken measures to prevent irrational downward pressure on loan rates, including discouraging banks from issuing loans at rates below the yield of government bonds [16][54]. - The "反内卷" (anti-involution) initiative aims to address the rapid decline in loan rates while ensuring that deposit rates do not fall excessively [3][15]. - The market is observing a shift in the pricing strategies of banks, with a focus on improving market pricing capabilities and stabilizing asset yields [24][56].