本轮拉升91%！有色ETF华宝（159876）创历史新高！国际金价突破4500美元整数大关，机构：有色或步入长牛！

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metals sector is experiencing significant activity, with the Huabao ETF (159876) leading the market, showing a price increase of over 2.3% at its peak and closing up 0.74% on December 23, 2025, with a trading volume of 68.87 million yuan, marking a record high since its listing [1][10]. Performance Summary - The Huabao ETF has seen a cumulative increase of 91.08% since its recent low on April 8, 2025, significantly outperforming major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index (26.59%) and the CSI 300 Index (28.73%) [1][10]. - The China Nonferrous Metals Index has shown varied performance over the past five years, with annual returns of 35.84% in 2020, 35.89% in 2021, -19.22% in 2022, -10.43% in 2023, and 2.96% in 2024 [3][12]. Key Stocks Performance - Leading stocks in the sector include: - Bowei Alloy and Shandong Gold, both up over 6% - Baowu Magnesium and Guocheng Mining, both rising over 5% - Yunnan Zinc Industry, Shengxin Lithium Energy, Nanshan Aluminum, and Zhongmin Resources, all increasing over 4% - Xiamen Tungsten, which rose nearly 4% to reach a historical high [3][12]. Market Dynamics - International gold prices have surpassed the $4,500 mark, reaching a new historical high. Analysts from GF Securities suggest that the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts in 2026, influenced by U.S. economic data and personnel changes, will lead to a decline in real interest rates and the dollar index, thereby driving gold prices higher [4][10]. - The non-ferrous metals sector is broader than just gold, encompassing strategic metals like rare earths and lithium, which benefit from technological advancements, as well as industrial metals like copper and aluminum that gain from economic recovery and infrastructure investments [4][14]. Supply and Demand Outlook - Industrial metals are expected to see constrained supply growth while benefiting from increased demand due to global energy transitions and high-end manufacturing upgrades. This creates a scenario of tight supply and growing demand, with low inventory levels likely leading to stronger prices [4][14]. - The Federal Reserve's new easing cycle and the global inflation environment highlight the anti-inflation properties of precious metals, potentially further boosting prices. The non-ferrous metals sector is anticipated to enter a prolonged bull market starting in 2026 [4][14]. Investment Strategy - For investors looking to capitalize on the non-ferrous metals sector, a diversified approach through the Huabao ETF (159876) and its associated funds is recommended. This strategy allows for exposure to a wide range of metals, thereby mitigating risks associated with investing in single metal sectors [6][14].