股市面面观｜全球消费走势分化，2026年布局重在精选标的

Core Insights - The global consumer market is experiencing a slow recovery since 2025, with consumer confidence in developed markets like Europe and the U.S. remaining low, leading to weaker performance in the consumer sector compared to broader market indices [2][3][4] Group 1: Market Performance - As of December 23, 2025, the S&P 500 Consumer Select Index has risen approximately 6%, lagging behind the S&P 500 Index's 16.9% increase; the European STOXX600 Consumer Index has decreased by 1.3%, while the STOXX600 Index has increased by 13.9%; the CSI 300 Consumer Index has dropped over 7%, compared to a 17.3% rise in the CSI 300 Index [2] - The consumer confidence index in the U.S. for December 2025 is reported at 52.9, below the market expectation of 53.4, reflecting a nearly 30% year-on-year decline, with about 47% of respondents indicating that high prices are straining their finances [3] Group 2: Economic Trends - The U.S. economy is exhibiting "K-shaped" characteristics, where high-income consumers are experiencing stronger consumption growth compared to low-income groups, leading to a widening gap in wages and wealth [3][4] - In Europe, the Eurozone consumer confidence index fell from -14.2 in November to -14.6 in December, indicating a continued trend of low consumer confidence below historical averages [4][5] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Analysts suggest that companies with strong brand power, pricing power, and refined operational capabilities will be more resilient in the challenging consumer landscape, with potential opportunities in service consumption, overseas markets, and personalized needs [2][6] - The focus for investors should be on selecting individual stocks within the consumer sector, as the market is expected to remain difficult, with structural pressures and cost fluctuations continuing to disrupt the market [6][7] - There is a growing emphasis on new consumer demands and models, particularly in overseas markets, where Chinese companies are leveraging manufacturing strengths to address local needs [6][7] Group 4: Future Outlook - The consumer sector is anticipated to face ongoing challenges in 2026, with a focus on wealth effect transmission and supply-side optimization as potential turning points for business operations [7][8] - Long-term investment strategies should consider changes in consumer structure, including new products related to emotional and health needs, new technologies, and new market channels [8]