光伏“去银化”技术连续突破，用银供需格局将逆转？

Group 1: Silver Price Trends - Silver prices have reached a historical high, surpassing $69 per ounce, with a cumulative increase of approximately 138% since 2025 [1] - As of the latest close, Shanghai silver futures rose by 6.06%, breaking through the 16,200 yuan per kilogram mark [1] - The continuous rise in silver prices is attributed to both increasing gold prices and heightened industrial demand, particularly from the photovoltaic (PV) industry [1][2] Group 2: Industrial Demand and Supply Dynamics - Industrial demand for silver is projected to grow significantly, with silver used in the PV sector expected to reach 6,146 tons by 2024, accounting for 17% of total silver demand [2] - The total industrial demand for silver is forecasted to increase from 15,300 tons in 2016 to 20,400 tons in 2024 [2] - The supply of silver has been relatively stagnant, leading to a supply deficit of 7,762 tons in 2022, 6,240 tons in 2023, and an estimated 4,632 tons in 2024 [2] Group 3: Technological Developments in Photovoltaics - The PV industry is under pressure from rising silver costs, prompting manufacturers to develop low-silver and no-silver technologies [3] - Companies like Dike Co. and Aiko Solar are advancing silver-coated copper and copper plating technologies, respectively, to reduce silver usage [3][4] - The implementation of these technologies could significantly lower silver consumption in PV cells, with Dike Co. achieving a silver content reduction to 20% in their products [5] Group 4: Future Market Implications - The ongoing development and potential widespread adoption of low-silver and no-silver technologies may lead to a substantial decrease in silver demand in the future [5] - Despite current supply shortages, signs of a potential supply-demand reversal are emerging, with expectations of a decline in new global PV installations by 10% in 2026 [6][7]