规模缩水超1700亿元！2025年可转债市场年终盘点
Zheng Quan Shi Bao·2025-12-23 12:52

Group 1 - The convertible bond market in 2025 is characterized by a significant "exit wave," driven by both an "asset shortage" and structural trends in the equity market, leading to a contraction in scale while certain segments remain hot [1][2] - As of December 23, 2025, 173 convertible bonds are expected to exit the market, a substantial increase from 88 in 2024, marking an increase of 85 bonds, nearly doubling the previous year's figure [2] - The total exit scale of convertible bonds in 2025 is projected to reach approximately 3207.97 billion yuan, nearly doubling from 1104.59 billion yuan in 2024, indicating a significant increase of 2103.38 billion yuan [2] Group 2 - The exit of bank convertible bonds has become a hallmark of this "exit wave," with several major bank bonds, including the 500 billion yuan issuance of Pudong Development Bank's bond, being delisted this year [2] - A total of 134 out of the 173 exiting convertible bonds were redeemed through forced redemption, accounting for 77.46% of the exits, a notable increase from 57.95% in 2024 [4] - The overall scale of the convertible bond market has shrunk by over 1700 billion yuan, with the number of outstanding convertible bonds decreasing to 413, down by 116 from the end of 2024 [5] Group 3 - The market is expected to continue facing supply-demand imbalances, with an estimated exit scale of around 1600 billion yuan for 2026, while the number of convertible bonds maturing in 2026 is significant, totaling 68 bonds with a combined scale of approximately 812 billion yuan [6] - The valuation of convertible bonds is generally perceived as high, with a median price exceeding 131 yuan and a median conversion premium rate above 32%, indicating a market entering a "high valuation, low return" state [7] - Investors are advised to reduce exposure to high-priced convertible bonds while focusing on those with stable fundamentals and higher yield-to-maturity, as the market dynamics shift towards a more equity-like characteristic in a potential bull market [8][9]