期权市场已为年末下跌布局，美元恐创八年来最差年度表现

Group 1 - The US dollar is on track to record its worst annual performance in eight years, with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index down 8.2% year-to-date, potentially marking the largest annual decline since 2017 [1] - The dollar index fell 0.3% on Tuesday, reaching its lowest point since October 3, indicating a significant downward trend [1] - A slight further decline in the dollar could result in the worst annual performance in over 20 years [1] Group 2 - Market expectations suggest a divergence in monetary policy between the Federal Reserve and other major central banks, contributing to ongoing downward pressure on the dollar [4] - The Canadian dollar, Australian dollar, and Swedish krona have shown strong performance, with the Canadian dollar reaching its highest level since August [4] - The options market reflects increasing pessimism regarding the dollar, with traders showing heightened bearish sentiment for the next three months [4] Group 3 - Concerns over fiscal discipline and escalating trade tensions are negatively impacting the dollar's outlook, as noted by Swissquote's senior analyst [4] - There is a lack of bullish sentiment for the dollar in the market, with analysts indicating a predominantly bearish outlook [4] - Upcoming economic data could prompt a reassessment of market expectations regarding Federal Reserve policy, potentially leading to a sharp rebound in the dollar [4]