Macro Economy - The GDP growth in 2025 was 5.2%, exceeding the 5% target, supported by domestic consumption and manufacturing investment [1] - The "new steady state" reflects a shift from real estate-driven growth to innovation-driven growth, focusing on quality and structural adjustments for long-term development [1] - The economic transformation emphasizes consumption and technological innovation as the main drivers, moving towards a mature stage of economic development [1] Equity Market - The equity market has entered a phase of valuation recovery and asset rotation, with expectations for a stabilization in investment in 2026 [2] - Consumer spending is expected to gradually increase, with resilient exports and moderate price improvements supporting nominal GDP growth and corporate earnings recovery [2] - A-shares are anticipated to transition from valuation-driven rallies to earnings-supported trends [2] Investment Strategy - The investment strategy for 2026 is characterized by "threefold diversification driving rebalancing": 1. Diversification in resident asset allocation, shifting from real estate to equities, with equity market value growth expected to exceed M2 growth [3] 2. Global diversification in asset allocation, with a favorable outlook for Chinese assets as the dollar index is expected to remain weak [3] 3. Structural rebalancing driven by economic convergence, with potential profit inflection points in industries benefiting from improved supply-demand dynamics [3] Sector Focus - Key investment themes include AI post-cycle investments and high-end manufacturing, particularly in midstream sectors such as power equipment, chemicals, machinery, and military industries [4] - The AI technology sector is expected to experience strong long-term growth, with a focus on infrastructure investment and commercial validation of AI applications [5][6] - The global AI industry is projected to see significant capital expenditure, with a shift towards commercialized AI services and opportunities in China's semiconductor industry [6][7] Real Estate Sector - The real estate sector is a crucial macroeconomic factor, with expectations for a recovery in demand in the second half of 2026 [7] - Investment opportunities in the real estate industry chain include real estate intermediaries, building materials, property management, and home-related sectors [7] - Specific opportunities in the renovation demand for residential and public sectors are highlighted, with leading companies expected to gain market share and stabilize revenues [7]
招商基金2026年投资策略展望：A股有望从估值抬升进入盈利支撑 三重多元化推动再平衡
Zhong Guo Zheng Quan Bao·2025-12-23 13:45