Rates Matter, But There's More to the 2026 Story for REITs

Core Viewpoint - The real estate sector, particularly real estate investment trusts (REITs), is expected to rebound in 2026, driven by factors beyond Federal Reserve assistance, with potential benefits for ETFs like the ALPS Active REIT ETF [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance and Historical Context - The real estate sector has underperformed the broader market for four consecutive years, leading to valuation discounts that are the widest since the global financial crisis [2]. - Historical patterns indicate that after three years of underperformance (as seen from 1997 to 1999), the sector experienced six years of outperformance [2]. Group 2: Sector Composition and Opportunities - The real estate sector, while small in the S&P 500, consists of various sub-groups that do not move uniformly, suggesting opportunities for actively managed REITs [3]. - Actively managed funds like the ALPS Active REIT ETF can target specific areas of opportunity, such as data center and industrial REITs, which are expected to show strength in 2026 [4]. Group 3: Demand Trends and Growth Drivers - Demand for data centers remains strong, with leasing momentum increasing, particularly in tertiary markets due to supply constraints in primary markets [5]. - The anticipated acceleration of AI demand in 2026 is expected to favor primary metro markets, impacting data center deployments [5]. - Mall and shopping center REITs are also viewed positively, with tight supply and strong lease backlogs expected to support net operating income growth [6]. Group 4: Earnings Growth and Market Outlook - Malls are currently trading at a premium compared to their five-year average, with strong earnings growth projected for FY26, particularly for Class A and primary metro-exposed assets [6].