一度高达18%！多晶硅交割价与现货巨大价差引热议，广期所回应

Core Viewpoint - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange (GFEX) has adjusted the trading rules for polysilicon futures contracts, limiting the daily opening position for non-futures company members or clients to 200 lots starting December 25, 2025, due to significant price fluctuations in the polysilicon futures market [1][2]. Market Dynamics - Since November 19, the price of the December polysilicon contract surged from approximately 53,130 yuan/ton to a peak of 62,200 yuan/ton on December 3, before settling at 59,100 yuan/ton on the delivery date of December 12, despite a significant divergence from the lower spot prices [3][15]. - The average spot price for N-type polysilicon on December 12 was 50,000 yuan/ton, indicating an 18% price gap between the delivery price and the spot price, which is considered unusually large [4][16]. Supply and Demand Analysis - The domestic polysilicon industry has an annual nominal production capacity exceeding 3.2 million tons, while domestic demand is only 1.3 million tons, leading to a supply-demand imbalance that has caused polysilicon prices to drop nearly 70% since the beginning of 2023 [5][17]. - Despite the overall decline, polysilicon futures prices began to rise from 31,000 yuan/ton in late June to around 55,000 yuan/ton, driven by various market speculations regarding production limits and industry consolidation [5][17]. Delivery Specifications - The GFEX has established a dual delivery system for polysilicon futures, allowing both benchmark and alternative delivery products, with 67% of industry products meeting the benchmark quality standards [6][19]. - Currently, there are 11 active polysilicon producers in the market, with GFEX having approved 10 registered brands, covering over 70% of the industry's production capacity [8][20]. Recent Market Trends - From December 8 to December 17, the main polysilicon contract price increased from 52,780 yuan/ton to 61,985 yuan/ton, reflecting a rise of over 17% in just a few days [8][20]. - Analysts suggest that the establishment of polysilicon platform companies and seasonal supply constraints are contributing to improved supply-demand dynamics, which may positively influence prices [9][21]. Regulatory Measures - To mitigate price volatility, GFEX implemented position limits and increased the number of delivery brands in early December [9][11]. - As of December 19, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts had dropped to 3,640 lots (10,920 tons), indicating a low supply level that has led to futures prices trading at a premium over spot prices [9][21]. Future Outlook - The market is advised to monitor the potential decline in polysilicon demand, particularly as the dry season approaches and production capacity in the southwestern region decreases [12][25]. - Overall, while the demand for polysilicon is expected to marginally decline, the anticipated effects of regulatory policies may still support a relatively strong price trend in the short term [12][25].