年度惊喜资产？30年期美债2025年韧性十足，明年或迎更严酷大考

Core Viewpoint - The 30-year U.S. Treasury bond is expected to close the year at a level nearly unchanged from the beginning of the year, despite facing significant challenges over the past 12 months [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - The yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond currently stands at approximately 4.8%, nearly returning to the level at the start of the year [3]. - The yield curve has steepened, with the 2-year/30-year curve reaching its steepest point in four years, primarily driven by short-term interest rate movements [4]. Group 2: Investor Demand - A yield of 5% is attractive to many investors, particularly pension funds, mutual funds, and insurance companies, which require long-term assets to match their long-term liabilities [4]. - Domestic institutional investors subscribed to about 70-75% of the bonds sold, with foreign investors increasing their purchases in the second half of the year [6]. Group 3: Auction Performance - The U.S. Treasury conducted 12 auctions of 30-year bonds this year, selling a total of $276 billion, with an average bid-to-cover ratio of 2.37, close to the average of 2.38 from the past 50 auctions [6]. - In these auctions, the Treasury only paid lower yields than the pre-auction market level three times, while six times it paid higher yields, indicating investor demand for a premium [6]. Group 4: Future Challenges - Despite the resilience shown by long-term U.S. bonds this year, they face significant challenges in the coming year, including rising risk premiums, inflation risks, and concerns over debt supply [6].