《枪炮、病菌与钢铁》的2025年金融版：枪炮与贵金属封神! 其他“传统避风港”集体失灵

Core Viewpoint - Gold is projected to be the biggest winner among commodities and safe-haven assets in 2025, with a significant increase in its price, while traditional safe-haven assets have underperformed compared to the S&P 500 index [1][4]. Group 1: Precious Metals Performance - Precious metals, including gold, silver, and platinum, have collectively surged in 2025, outperforming the MSCI global stock index, with gold prices rising over 70%, marking the largest increase since the 1979 oil crisis [1][4]. - Silver and platinum have also seen their prices more than double, indicating a strong performance across the precious metals sector [1][4]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The unexpected resilience of the global economy, coupled with rising geopolitical tensions and concerns over an "AI bubble," has contributed to the extreme pricing dynamics where traditional safe-haven assets have failed [1][7]. - The defense and military sector has emerged as an alternative safe haven, with U.S. aerospace and defense stocks rising by 36% and European counterparts increasing by 55% due to rearmament efforts in Europe [4][8]. Group 3: Traditional Safe-Haven Assets - Traditional safe-haven assets, such as government bonds and defensive stocks, have underperformed significantly, with global government bond prices unexpectedly declining by about 1% [15][17]. - The performance of traditional defensive sectors, including utilities and consumer staples, has lagged behind the S&P 500 index, with consumer staples being the worst-performing sector, rising only about 2% [17][18]. Group 4: Currency Performance - The Japanese yen and Swiss franc, typically viewed as safe-haven currencies, have also disappointed in 2025, with the yen declining approximately 4% against major trading partners [20][21]. - The U.S. dollar index (DXY) experienced a significant drop of 12% during periods of geopolitical turmoil, indicating a lack of safe-haven characteristics for both the dollar and yen in 2025 [23][21]. Group 5: Volatility Strategies - Volatility strategies, often used as hedging tools, have failed to deliver returns in 2025, with the VIX index reflecting lower volatility levels by year-end compared to the beginning of the year [24][26].