Ki Young Ju and Peter Brandt Just Released Medium- and Long-Term Bitcoin Predictions

Core Viewpoint - Despite significant accumulation by Bitcoin ETFs and DATs, Bitcoin's price has not attracted the same level of retail participation as in previous cycles [1] Short-Term Outlook - Bitcoin is likely to face challenges in recovery due to declining stablecoin reserves, with capital outflows reaching nearly $1.9 billion in just 30 days [2] - Major exchanges, particularly Binance, show a significant drop in ERC-20 stablecoin reserves, indicating that retail investors are exiting the market [3] - The lack of investor interest in immediate market exposure is evident as some investors withdraw their stablecoins instead of keeping them on exchanges [4] Medium-Term Outlook - On-chain capital inflows into Bitcoin are gradually weakening, with the realized cap stalling after approximately 2.5 years of growth [5] - The PnL Index Signal, which tracks profit and loss based on wallet cost basis, has been moving sideways since early 2025 and is trending downward, indicating increasing losses [6] - A sentiment recovery may take a few months according to industry analysis [6] Long-Term Outlook - Long-term perspectives remain optimistic, with analysts like Peter Brandt maintaining a bullish stance on Bitcoin [7] - Brandt notes that Bitcoin has experienced five logarithmic parabolic advances over the past 15 years, with declines of at least 80% following each cycle, suggesting the current cycle is not yet over [7] - While no specific timing for a potential bottom was provided, Brandt projects that the next bull market peak could occur in September 2029 [8]