美国三季度GDP增速4.3%超预期 通胀温和回升引关注

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. economy continued to expand in Q3 2025, with real GDP growth accelerating to 4.3% from 3.8% in Q2, driven by increased consumer spending, exports, and government spending, despite a decline in investment [1] Group 1: Consumer Spending - Consumer spending, a key driver of economic growth, accelerated in Q3, with notable contributions from healthcare services and other services such as international travel and legal services [2] - In terms of goods consumption, entertainment products and transportation tools, along with non-durable goods (notably prescription drugs), showed growth, supported by data from the Census Bureau's Quarterly Services Survey and Monthly Retail Trade Survey [2] Group 2: Exports and Imports - Exports turned positive in Q3, with capital goods (excluding automobiles) and non-durable consumer goods leading the growth, while service exports were driven by business services [2] - The decline in imports narrowed, with a reduction in goods imports (primarily non-durable goods) and an increase in service imports, particularly in business services [2] Group 3: Government Spending - Both federal and state/local government spending increased, with federal spending primarily supported by defense expenditures, while state and local governments focused on consumption-related spending [2] Group 4: Investment - Investment saw a reduced decline, primarily due to a decrease in private inventory investment, with wholesale trade and manufacturing inventory adjustments being significant factors [2] Group 5: Price Levels and Inflation - The domestic purchase price index rose by 3.4% year-on-year in Q3, up from 2.0% in Q2, indicating a moderate increase in inflationary pressures [3] - The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index increased by 2.8%, while the core PCE index (excluding food and energy) rose by 2.9%, reflecting a slight uptick in inflation but remaining within a manageable range [3] Group 6: Corporate Profits - U.S. corporate current production profits increased by $166.1 billion in Q3, a significant rise compared to the $68 billion increase in Q2, although some final settlement agreements partially offset corporate profits [3]