黄金和白银升至纪录新高 受美国降息预期和地缘政治风险推动

Core Viewpoint - Gold and silver prices have reached historical highs, driven by escalating geopolitical tensions and expectations of further interest rate cuts in the U.S. [2][7] Geopolitical Factors - The recent increase in gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset is attributed to heightened geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding Venezuela, where the U.S. has intensified pressure on President Nicolás Maduro's government [2][7] - Ahmad Assiri from Pepperstone Group noted that while these developments have not triggered complete risk-off sentiment, they have certainly increased the potential demand for gold as a necessary safe-haven asset [2][7] Market Performance - Gold prices have surged by 70% this year, potentially marking the best annual performance since 1979, largely due to increased purchases by central banks and significant inflows into gold ETFs [2][8] - The world's largest precious metals ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, has seen its holdings increase by over 20% this year [8] Investor Behavior - Recent price surges have been primarily driven by retail investors rather than institutional ones, with concerns over rising debt levels leading to a sell-off of sovereign bonds and their currencies [8] - The influx of retail investor funds into gold ETFs is noted to be less sticky, suggesting continued price volatility [8] Price Trends - Gold and silver have not experienced sell-offs despite entering overbought territory, as indicated by their relative strength index (RSI) readings above 80 for gold and close to 80 for silver [9] - Current price levels of $4,500 for gold and $70 for silver are viewed as reference points rather than hard resistance levels, indicating solid support for both metals [9] Future Projections - Several banks, including Goldman Sachs, predict that gold prices will continue to rise, with a base case scenario of $4,900 per ounce by 2026, while also highlighting potential upside risks [8]