“天下苦预售制久矣”，现房销售重塑楼市供需新平衡

Core Viewpoint - The shift towards "existing house sales" is a significant upgrade in the real estate sector, aimed at fundamentally preventing delivery risks and enhancing buyer confidence [1][3]. Group 1: Current Policy Changes - The national housing and urban-rural development meeting emphasized the promotion of existing house sales, marking a departure from the previous year's focus on "orderly promotion" of this model [1]. - The transition from a pre-sale system, which has been in place for over 30 years, is challenging due to its historical role in rapidly expanding housing supply and urbanization [1]. Group 2: Impact on Developers - The existing house sales model directly impacts developers' cash flow, as they must invest all construction funds upfront and wait until project completion to recoup costs, extending the cash cycle from months to two or three years [2]. - This shift raises the industry entry barrier, requiring developers to enhance their financial strength, project management, and cost control capabilities [2]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - In the short term, the transition to existing house sales may lead to a decline in new housing supply due to extended development cycles [4][5]. - However, in the long term, the market is expected to achieve a balance through policy adjustments, with a focus on rational buyer behavior and reduced speculative activities [5]. - The "seeing is believing" approach of existing house sales helps eliminate risks associated with unfinished projects, allowing buyers to assess quality directly and reducing disputes [5]. Group 4: Financial Innovations - Recommendations include developing financial products tailored to existing house sales, such as "existing house development loans" and adjusting land transfer payment conditions to alleviate developers' financial pressures [5].