“天下苦预售制久矣” 现房销售重塑楼市供需新平衡

Core Viewpoint - The transition to a "current housing sales" system is being emphasized to fundamentally prevent delivery risks, marking a significant upgrade in the status of current housing sales compared to previous years [1][4]. Group 1: Current Housing Sales Policy - The national housing and urban-rural construction work conference has highlighted the need to promote current housing sales, aiming for a "what you see is what you get" approach to mitigate delivery risks [1]. - The shift from a pre-sale system, which has been in place for over 30 years, to a current housing sales model is a complex process due to the historical significance of the pre-sale system in rapidly expanding housing supply and urbanization [1][5]. Group 2: Impact on Developers - Current housing sales will directly impact developers' cash flow, as they will need to invest all construction funds upfront and will only recover costs after project completion, extending the cash recovery period from months to two to three years [2][4]. - This change raises the industry entry barrier, requiring developers to enhance their financial strength, project management, and cost control capabilities [2]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - In the short term, the implementation of current housing sales may lead to a decline in new housing supply due to extended development cycles, but long-term adjustments in policy are expected to balance supply and demand [4]. - The current housing sales model allows buyers to physically inspect properties, leading to more cautious decision-making and a reduction in speculative behavior, which can stabilize market prices and improve supply-demand structure [4]. Group 4: Financial Innovations - To alleviate long-term financial pressures on developers, there is a need for innovative financial tools such as "current housing development loans" and adjustments in land transfer payment conditions [4].