Core Insights - U.S. apartment demand has decelerated in Q3 2025, with occupancy falling and rent cuts persisting across the market [1][4] - Despite the current challenges, there is optimism for residential REITs like Essex Property Trust, UDR, and Camden Property Trust in 2026 due to favorable demographic trends and easing supply pressures [2][10] Apartment Market Overview - U.S. apartment occupancy decreased by 10 basis points year-over-year to 94.8% in November 2025, marking the first annual decline since August 2024 [4] - Effective asking rents dropped 0.4% in November and 0.7% annually, with the average effective rent at $1,852 [4] - Rent growth is softening as owners adopt defensive leasing strategies, focusing on maintaining occupancy rather than increasing rents [3] Regional Performance - Rent cuts have varied by region, with the most significant declines in Southern and Western markets, while tech-focused coastal cities like San Francisco and New York have seen slight rent increases [6][7] - Cities like Tampa, Nashville, and Las Vegas are also experiencing softening, while St. Louis has emerged as a top-performing city [6][7] Economic Conditions - Macroeconomic conditions are mixed, with positive but slowing employment growth; job growth is expected to remain soft in 2026, but the unemployment rate is low enough to support wage increases [8] - Despite concerns about tariffs, inflation is largely under control, which may benefit the multifamily housing sector [8] Outlook for REITs - The long-term outlook for multifamily housing remains healthy, supported by rising household formation and limited homeownership affordability [9] - Essex Property Trust (ESS) expects 2026 revenues of $1.96 billion, a 3.7% year-over-year increase, with a core FFO per share of $16.28, indicating 1.9% growth [14] - UDR anticipates 2026 revenues of $1.75 billion, reflecting a 2.9% year-over-year rise, with a core FFO per share of $2.56, implying a 1.1% increase [17] - Camden Property Trust (CPT) projects 2026 revenues of $1.61 billion, a 2.2% year-over-year rise, with a core FFO per share of $6.94, indicating a 1.4% increase [20]
3 Residential REITs to Consider for Steady Income in 2026