西非原油因全球供应过剩而难以找到买家

Core Insights - West African oil sellers are struggling to sell crude oil scheduled for loading on December 26 and January due to intense competition from cheaper alternatives [1][2] - The unsold crude oil from Nigeria and Angola reflects an overall oversupply in the global oil market, leading to a sell-off in international futures markets, with Brent crude prices dropping below $60 per barrel [1][2] Group 1: Market Conditions - Analysts indicate that the backlog of West African crude oil shipments is indicative of a global oversupply situation that emerged in the first quarter of this year [3] - As of last Thursday, approximately 20 million barrels of Nigerian crude oil remained unsold, while Angola has five to six cargoes unsold in its December to January export plan [3] - The total unsold crude oil from both countries is estimated to be around 40 million barrels, which is unusual for this time of year [3] Group 2: Factors Influencing Demand - Current market weakness is attributed to seasonal factors and changes in buyer procurement patterns due to freight costs and alternative supply options [2][3] - Angola's January crude oil exports are lagging 20% behind long-term averages as major commodity buyers shift to cheaper or geographically closer oil sources [2][3] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Middle Eastern crude oil, with lower official prices and shorter shipping distances, is replacing West African medium and heavy crude in Asian markets [4] - Despite tightening Western sanctions, India's oil imports remain resilient as the country substitutes West African medium-heavy crude with other sources, while West African light to medium crude struggles to compete with supplies from Argentina and Brazil [4] - Nigeria faces additional unsold crude due to reduced imports by Dangote Refinery, Africa's largest refinery with a capacity of 650,000 barrels per day, which is undergoing maintenance in January [4]