公然鼓吹“拥核” 日本到底想干什么？

Core Viewpoint - Japan's recent political discourse surrounding nuclear weapons, particularly comments from high-ranking officials advocating for nuclear armament, raises significant concerns about the country's security policy and its historical stance on nuclear weapons [1][18]. Group 1: Nuclear Weapon Advocacy - A senior official from Japan's Prime Minister's office stated on December 18 that "Japan should possess nuclear weapons," which has sparked widespread criticism [1]. - The ruling party, led by Prime Minister Kishi, is reportedly exploring modifications to Japan's "Three Non-Nuclear Principles," particularly the principle against the introduction of nuclear weapons [3][19]. - The Hiroshima Prefectural Assembly unanimously passed a resolution urging the government to adhere to the "Three Non-Nuclear Principles," expressing concerns that any modification could lead to a repeat of the tragedies experienced in Hiroshima and Nagasaki [3]. Group 2: Security Threat Narratives - Japan's Defense Minister has been actively participating in military events and has emphasized the urgent need to strengthen defense capabilities in the southwestern region of Japan, aligning with the narrative of heightened security threats [4][21]. - The recent military activities and rhetoric from Japanese officials are seen as part of a broader strategy to justify the push for nuclear armament and the relaxation of weapon export restrictions [1][9]. Group 3: Weapon Export Policy Changes - Japan has been progressively relaxing its weapon export restrictions, with recent agreements reached to modify the "Defense Equipment Transfer Principles" and eliminate certain export limitations [11][17]. - The current government is expected to submit proposals to the cabinet in February to further ease restrictions on weapon exports, indicating a significant shift in Japan's defense policy [11][17]. - The historical context of Japan's weapon export restrictions dates back to its post-World War II pacifist constitution, but recent political shifts suggest a move towards military normalization [15][17]. Group 4: Underlying Motivations for Nuclear Advocacy - The increasing military disparity between Japan and China has led to strategic anxieties, prompting some Japanese officials to advocate for nuclear capabilities as a means to counterbalance this perceived threat [21]. - The decline of U.S. hegemony has led some Japanese politicians to believe that the U.S. may not provide adequate protection in future conflicts, thus necessitating Japan's own military deterrent [21]. - The push for nuclear armament is also viewed as a political maneuver by right-wing factions within Japan to divert attention from other issues and to further their agenda of military revitalization [21].