SOFI的“平台故事”能否支撑近50倍的估值？

Core Viewpoint - The market is undergoing a valuation reassessment of growth stocks, with previously overlooked stocks beginning to see a rebound, while the financial sector remains strong, reaching historical highs [3]. Group 1: SOFI's Market Position - SOFI has not been able to break the key resistance level of $31 since August-September 2025, but there is no need for excessive pessimism as clearer market signals have emerged [3]. - The stock's bullish logic in October focused on its ability to diversify into high-growth areas, particularly in the financial services sector, although the market is unlikely to significantly raise its growth stock valuation multiples [3]. - SOFI's expected price-to-earnings ratio is currently around 50 times, which is close to its one-year low, and the stock has seen an annual return of over 80% this year, with a cumulative return exceeding 500% over the past three years [6]. Group 2: Growth Areas - SOFI is strategically expanding into new growth areas, including the restart of its cryptocurrency platform, which is expected to enhance user engagement [7][12]. - The loan platform business has shown impressive performance, achieving a fourfold year-on-year growth, and is now seen as a strong growth driver for the company [10]. - The company has completed loan issuance of $3.4 billion, with an annualized operating scale of $13 billion and annual revenue contribution reaching $660 million [10]. Group 3: Strategic Developments - The restart of the cryptocurrency business is a well-considered strategic decision, aligning with user feedback and the growing mainstream acceptance of cryptocurrency investments [12]. - SOFI's introduction of a fully-backed USD stablecoin is a natural extension of its cryptocurrency business, indicating a move towards more diversified growth areas [12]. - The company’s management emphasizes that the loan platform business is no longer limited to referral and monetization channels but is deeply integrated with SOFI's core capabilities, enhancing revenue stability [10]. Group 4: Future Outlook - SOFI's strong earnings growth trajectory suggests that its competitive moat is solidifying, indicating that the company’s best performance may still be ahead [13]. - Despite a nearly 50 times expected price-to-earnings ratio potentially limiting further valuation increases, the stock shows strong buyer support around the $25 mark [13]. - The company faces challenges, including potential consumer confidence issues and economic conditions that could impact its high valuation multiples [13].