MP vs. UUUU: Which Rare Earth Stock Has an Edge Now?

Core Viewpoint - MP Materials and Energy Fuels are positioned to significantly contribute to the establishment of a secure domestic supply chain for rare earth elements and critical minerals in the United States [1] Group 1: MP Materials - MP Materials is the largest producer of rare earth materials in the Western Hemisphere, with a market capitalization of $9.6 billion, operating the Mountain Pass Rare Earth Mine, the only large-scale rare earth mining and processing site in North America [2] - The company has secured long-term agreements with Apple to supply rare earth magnets made from recycled materials and with the Department of War to enhance the domestic rare earth magnet supply chain [5][6] - In Q3 2025, MP Materials reported revenues of $56.6 million, a 15% decline year-over-year, but achieved a record production of 721 metric tons of NdPr, a 51% increase from the previous year [7] - The company anticipates a return to profitability in Q4 2025 and 2026, supported by a Price Protection Agreement with the Department of War [10] - MP Materials is the only fully integrated rare earth producer in the U.S., with a comprehensive supply chain from mining to magnet manufacturing [11] Group 2: Energy Fuels - Energy Fuels, with a market capitalization of $3.58 billion, is a leading uranium producer and has begun producing mixed REE carbonate and separated NdPr at its White Mesa Mill [3][12] - The company reported a 337.6% increase in total revenues to $17.7 million in Q3 2025, driven by higher uranium sales volumes, despite a loss of seven cents per share [14][15] - Energy Fuels has qualified its high-purity Dy oxide and NdPr oxide for use in permanent magnet applications, marking a significant milestone in the U.S. rare earth supply chain [13] - The company is developing significant REE capabilities alongside uranium production, with projects in Australia, Madagascar, and Brazil that could enhance its supply of critical minerals [16] Group 3: Financial Estimates and Performance - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for MP Materials' fiscal 2025 earnings is a loss of 22 cents per share, with a projected profit of 68 cents per share in fiscal 2026 [17] - Energy Fuels is estimated to report a loss of 35 cents per share in fiscal 2025, improving to a loss of six cents per share in 2026 [17] - MP Materials has seen upward revisions in earnings estimates for 2025, while Energy Fuels' estimates have been revised downward for both years [18] - MP Materials stock has increased by 228.8% over the past year, outperforming Energy Fuels' 182.1% rise [20] - MP Materials is trading at a forward price-to-sales ratio of 23.15X, while Energy Fuels is at 41.55X, indicating a cheaper valuation for MP [22] Group 4: Investment Outlook - MP Materials is recognized for its solid production gains and capacity expansion, with strategic partnerships enhancing its growth outlook [24] - Energy Fuels provides exposure to both uranium and rare earth markets, but MP Materials currently has a clearer path to profitability and better price performance [25]