Mortgage rates in 2026: 30-year rates at 6.4% and 15-year at 5.9% — Will they finally drop? Experts forecast

Core Insights - Mortgage rates are drifting lower but not falling rapidly, with a consensus among housing economists that a significant drop in rates in 2026 is unlikely [1][9][24] - Buyers need to reset their expectations regarding mortgage rates and market conditions [1][21] Mortgage Rate Trends - Current national averages show the 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 6.04%, the 20-year fixed at 5.89%, and the 15-year fixed at 5.44% [2][3] - VA loans offer lower rates, with the 30-year VA loan averaging 5.52% and the 15-year VA at 5.17% [3] - Refinance rates are higher than purchase rates, with the 30-year refinance averaging 6.15% and the 15-year refinance at 5.60% [3] Payment Comparisons - A $400,000 loan at 6.04% results in a monthly payment of approximately $2,409 over 30 years, totaling about $467,000 in interest [5] - A 15-year mortgage at 5.44% raises the monthly payment to about $3,256 but reduces total interest to around $186,000, highlighting significant long-term savings [5] Market Dynamics - Home sales may increase by 9-10% due to pent-up demand and improved affordability, although still below pre-pandemic levels [8][26] - The housing market remains tight, with high prices and limited inventory, leading to intense competition [8][12] Economic Indicators - Economists do not anticipate a sharp decline in mortgage rates in 2026, with expectations for 30-year fixed rates to hover around 6.4% [9][15] - Lower inflation and a weakening labor market could drive rates below 6%, but significant changes in economic conditions are necessary for this to occur [10][11] Long-term Outlook - The broader trend shows mortgage rates have decreased from the highs of 2023, but experts caution that rates are likely to stabilize rather than fall quickly [12][14] - Most forecasts suggest rates will not fall below 6% before late 2026, with various organizations predicting rates around 5.9% to 6.4% by then [15][24] Buyer Strategies - Experts advise against waiting solely for lower mortgage rates, as housing supply remains tight and prices are high [21][22] - A more realistic strategy for buyers is to focus on affordability and flexibility within current market constraints rather than waiting for ideal mortgage rates [23][25]