外资机构看多2026年中国股市

Group 1 - Citigroup Private Bank maintains an overweight rating on the Chinese market within the emerging markets sector, having reduced exposure to Asian emerging market stocks outside of China to optimize asset allocation [1] - Foreign institutions generally hold a positive outlook on Chinese stocks for 2026, with corporate profit improvement being the key driver for market growth [2] - The proportion of companies in the MSCI China Index that have raised earnings forecasts has increased by about 2 standard deviations since May 2025, marking the best performance since 2020 [2] Group 2 - UBS forecasts that the overall A-share profit growth rate is expected to rise from 6% in 2025 to 8% in 2026, driven by nominal GDP growth, revenue increases, supportive policies, and the implementation of "anti-involution" policies [2] - Daniel Morris from BNP Paribas highlights that the greatest profit growth potential in China is concentrated in the technology sector, which is less affected by trade policies due to its revenue being more service-oriented [3] - There has been a significant inflow of global investment into Chinese assets, with $83.1 billion in net inflows into ETFs since 2025, indicating a strong interest from foreign capital in the Chinese market [4] Group 3 - Morgan Stanley's chief equity strategist for China anticipates that more foreign capital will return to the Chinese market in 2026, with passive foreign funds already showing significant inflows while active funds are expected to follow [4] - The current equity risk premium in the A-share market remains above historical averages, suggesting potential for further valuation increases driven by macro policies, accelerated profit growth, and long-term capital inflows [5]