Economy is currently supercharging the productivity story, says Jefferies' David Zervos

Core Insights - The productivity in America is reportedly improving, with growth rates around 2.8% in 2023 and 2.9% projected for 2024, despite a rising unemployment rate from 3.5% to 3.8% and then to 4.1% [2][3] - The current economic narrative suggests a shift towards higher productivity driven by factors such as remote work and better job placements, which have allowed companies to operate efficiently with fewer employees [4][5] - There is an expectation that deregulation and tax changes from the new administration will further enhance productivity, potentially leading to a growth rate of 3.5% to 4% with an unemployment rate of around 5% by the end of 2026 [8] Industry Trends - The finance industry is witnessing a trend where companies are leveraging tools to increase productivity without necessarily hiring more staff, indicating a shift in operational strategies [11] - The rise of AI is seen as a double-edged sword; while it allows for efficiency with fewer employees, it also raises questions about future job creation and the need for new roles to support AI-driven platforms [9][10] - The narrative around job creation is evolving, with expectations that new jobs will emerge to support technological advancements, although there may be a lag in this job growth [8][10]