加拿大央行不确定下一次政策利率调整会在何时以及朝哪个方向

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Canada has decided to maintain the overnight rate at 2.25%, with uncertainty regarding the direction of the next policy adjustment, whether it will be another rate cut or a rate hike [2][6]. Group 1: Monetary Policy - The Bank of Canada officials expressed "high uncertainty" making it difficult to predict when and in which direction the next interest rate adjustment will occur [2][6]. - The decision-making committee discussed the potential impact of the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) on economic prospects, noting that a breakdown of the agreement could severely damage the economy [2][6]. Group 2: Economic Outlook - Recent quarterly GDP data has shown significant volatility, highlighting the challenges in assessing potential economic trends [4][8]. - The Bank of Canada anticipates a weak GDP for the fourth quarter, with increases in consumption, housing activity, and government spending offsetting weak business investment and net exports [4][8]. - Preliminary estimates indicate that the Canadian economy experienced slight expansion in November, following a contraction of 0.3% in October, suggesting that economic growth for the quarter is likely to be negative [4][8].