3 Key Questions in Corn

Group 1: Market Overview - The National Corn Index tends to rally approximately 5% from the last weekly close of November through the final weekly close of February, while December futures show minimal movement [1] - The USDA's global ending stocks estimate for the 2025-2026 marketing year is 279.15 million metric tons, down from 281.34 million metric tons, indicating the lowest stocks-to-use ratio in 13 years [3] - The National Corn Index was priced at $4.0370, indicating a bearish fundamental situation compared to the previous 5-year and 10-year averages [4] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The U.S. is on pace to ship 4.5 billion bushels of corn during the 2025-2026 marketing year, a 67% increase from the previous year [4] - The May 2026-July 2026 corn futures spread covered a bullish 28%, indicating concerns about sourcing supplies to meet demand next spring [8] - The corn market could see a solid seasonal winter/spring rally based on supply and demand fundamentals [7] Group 3: Investment Sentiment - Confidence in the corn market remains strong, with corn viewed as a good investment opportunity [5] - The selloff in the futures market suggests that funds have likely reduced their net-long futures position, which could influence buying interest in the upcoming quarters [9] - The structure of the corn market supports a bullish longer-term view despite current bearish fundamentals [8]