Oracle May Not Be Able to Build Its Michigan Data Center After All. Should You Sell ORCL Stock Now?

Valuation and Financial Performance - Oracle trades at a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 33x, higher than the tech sector average of about 24x, indicating strong growth expectations from investors [1] - The company reported total revenue of $16.1 billion for fiscal 2026 second quarter, a 14% year-over-year increase, with cloud revenue rising 34% to $8 billion [6] - GAAP earnings per share (EPS) surged 91% to $2.10, and remaining performance obligations climbed to $523 billion, up 438%, indicating a significant backlog of future business [6] Recent Stock Performance - Over the past month, Oracle shares have slipped 14.9% due to a funding setback for the Michigan data center, but the stock is up 13.7% over the past 52 weeks, reflecting a strong long-term outlook [2][5] - Following mixed financial results and a sharp increase in capital spending outlook to roughly $50 billion for fiscal 2026, shares dropped 12% after earnings and another 6% after reports of stalled funding for the Michigan AI data center [5] AI Infrastructure and Strategic Initiatives - The Michigan project is a key part of Oracle's push into AI infrastructure, with concerns about funding risks and balance-sheet pressure arising from the breakdown of a significant partnership [4][5] - Oracle is focusing on AI in healthcare, particularly in oncology care, through collaborations aimed at integrating AI with clinical research and personalized medicine [7][8] - The company is enhancing its enterprise software by launching the Oracle Fusion Applications AI Agent Marketplace, facilitating the deployment of AI agents within existing customer environments [9] Analyst Ratings and Future Outlook - Analysts expect quarterly EPS of $1.35 for the next earnings release, rising to $1.55 for the following quarter, with a full fiscal year 2026 EPS estimate of $5.82, reflecting year-over-year growth [11] - Despite concerns over the stalled Blue Owl funding, Bank of America maintains a "Buy" rating, while JPMorgan holds a "Neutral" rating, indicating differing levels of confidence in Oracle's growth potential [12] - The consensus rating among 41 analysts is a "Moderate Buy," with an average price target of $306.19, suggesting potential upside despite current volatility [13]