2026 Looks Like An Inflection Point For Schwab’s US REIT To Launch Higher | SCHH

Core Insights - The Schwab U.S. REIT ETF (SCHH) has experienced a slight decline of approximately 2% over the past year as investors await favorable interest rate conditions [1] - The 10-year Treasury yield is a significant factor influencing SCHH's performance, with expectations of a decline to the 3.0% to 3.5% range by late 2026, making REIT dividends more attractive [2] Interest Rate Impact - Lower long-term interest rates lead to cap rate compression, increasing property values as the discount rate for future cash flows decreases [3] - A warehouse's value increases when financing costs drop from 6% to 4%, directly benefiting SCHH's net asset value due to its holdings in industrial REITs [3] Commercial Real Estate Maturity Wall - Approximately $162 billion in commercial real estate loans are set to mature in 2026, a 56% increase from $104 billion in 2025, with many loans needing refinancing at potentially higher rates [4] - The refinancing environment is critical for SCHH, as elevated rates near 6% could lead to dividend cuts, while a drop toward 4% would ease the crisis [4][5] Performance of Holdings - Welltower has seen a rise of over 50% year-to-date, while Digital Realty has declined by 14% due to cooling demand for AI infrastructure [5] - The relationship between Treasury yields and property values indicates that lower rates enhance the attractiveness of REITs [5]