降息还是加息？加央行会议纪要显示政策调整方向存在高度不确定性

Group 1 - The Bank of Canada has decided to maintain the overnight rate at 2.25%, but there is significant uncertainty regarding the direction of future policy adjustments, whether it will be further rate cuts or increases [1][4] - The central bank's policymakers highlighted the "highly uncertain environment," making it difficult to predict the timing and direction of the next policy rate adjustment [4] - The impact of the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) on the Canadian economy was a key discussion point, with concerns that a breakdown of the trade agreement could severely impact the economy, while progress in negotiations could boost business investment [4] Group 2 - Recent quarterly GDP data has shown significant volatility, indicating challenges in assessing the underlying economic trends, with expectations of weak economic performance in Q4 [4] - Preliminary data indicates a slight increase in Canada's GDP for November, reversing a 0.3% contraction in October; however, the central bank believes overall economic growth may still be negative on a quarterly basis [4] - Analysts suggest that the Bank of Canada is currently in a "wait-and-see mode," with future monetary policy heavily reliant on economic data performance and developments in North American trade negotiations [4]