正信期货：国际机构2026年原油市场展望

Core Viewpoint - Three major international organizations, EIA, IEA, and OPEC, believe that global oil supply growth in 2026 will be driven by non-OECD countries, while demand growth will also be primarily contributed by non-OECD nations. They have adjusted their forecasts for oil demand growth upward compared to previous reports, indicating a potential stabilization of international oil prices after a bottoming out in the coming year [3][9]. Group 1: EIA Insights - EIA predicts that global oil inventories will continue to grow until 2026, with an increase of over 2 million barrels per day, exerting downward pressure on oil prices in the coming months [5][11]. - The average Brent crude oil price is expected to drop to $55 per barrel in Q1 2026 and remain around this level for the rest of the year. However, OPEC's production policies and China's strategic reserve increases may limit further price declines [5][11]. - EIA's December report forecasts a global oil supply of 107.43 million barrels per day and a demand of 105.17 million barrels per day in 2026, resulting in a daily surplus of 2.26 million barrels, which is an increase of 20,000 barrels per day compared to 2025 [5][11]. Group 2: OPEC Insights - OPEC maintains its GDP growth forecast for 2026, indicating that oil demand remains resilient, supported by increased fiscal spending in major economies and loose monetary policies [6][12]. - Global oil demand is expected to grow by 1.4 million barrels per day in 2026, primarily driven by non-OECD countries, with OECD demand increasing by approximately 200,000 barrels per day [6][12]. - Non-OECD countries are projected to see a demand increase of over 1.2 million barrels per day, with Asia, particularly India and China, being the main growth drivers [6][12]. Group 3: IEA Insights - IEA has raised its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2026 by 860,000 barrels per day to 104.79 million barrels per day, citing improved macroeconomic expectations [7][13]. - The organization has lowered its supply growth forecast, attributing this to the impact of sanctions on Russian and Venezuelan oil exports, reducing the expected surplus from 404.6 thousand barrels per day to 381.5 thousand barrels per day [7][13]. - This adjustment marks the first downward revision of surplus expectations since the beginning of the production increase cycle this year [7][13].