图解2025｜火线上的博弈

Core Insights - The world in 2025 is overshadowed by conflicts, with technological advancements, great power rivalries, and historical grievances intertwining, leading to complex and easily spread forms of warfare [1] - The Global Peace Index report indicates that the overall level of peace has reached its lowest point in nearly two decades, with 59 armed conflicts involving state actors occurring globally, marking the highest number since World War II [1] Group 1: Ongoing Conflicts - Major conflicts such as the Russia-Ukraine war and the escalating Israel-Palestine conflict are interconnected, affecting global energy prices, food supply, and regional stability [3] - The Russia-Ukraine conflict has evolved into a high-tech war, with extensive use of drones, electronic warfare systems, and artificial intelligence, influencing other conflict regions [5] - The Israel-Palestine conflict has seen multiple ceasefires and escalations, impacting broader regions, including threats to the Red Sea shipping lanes and frequent clashes along the Lebanon-Israel border [13][14] Group 2: Humanitarian Impact - The humanitarian crisis resulting from wars is severe, with millions displaced and reliant on international aid, and significant destruction of infrastructure, including schools and hospitals [28] - Over 50 million children are estimated to be out of school due to conflicts, and long-term conflicts are fracturing social structures, complicating future reconciliation efforts [28] - The economic foundations in conflict zones are devastated, with agriculture, factories, and critical infrastructure destroyed, leading to long-term poverty in affected areas [40] Group 3: Global Political Dynamics - The positions and actions of major powers significantly influence the development of conflicts, with NATO's expansion and differing support levels for Ukraine testing the alliance's unity [48] - Russia's military-technical cooperation with Iran has strengthened, creating a practical "anti-sanction cooperation network" [50] - Countries in the Global South, such as Brazil and South Africa, are asserting independent positions on conflict issues, emphasizing dialogue and the UN's core role [55] Group 4: Economic and Supply Chain Implications - Global supply chains are being restructured with a focus on "security," as countries, particularly in the West, push to relocate critical supplies to political allies, leading to a potential fragmentation of the global trade system [59] - The U.S. is enhancing its critical mineral supply chain security through initiatives with allies like Japan, India, and Australia, reflecting a shift towards economic resilience [61]