智通财经网·2025-12-24 00:44Core Viewpoint - The report from China Galaxy Securities highlights the ongoing policy initiatives aimed at regulating pricing behavior and facilitating the orderly exit of outdated production capacity in the photovoltaic (PV) industry, which is a key focus area for combating "involution" in China. The industry is expected to see a recovery in profitability, with a potential turnaround in 2026, particularly in the silicon material segment, driven by policy support and technological advancements [1][3]. Group 1: Policy and Market Dynamics - The photovoltaic industry in China is projected to add over 200 GW of new installations domestically, while globally, there is a slight decline of 1% to 540 GW. From 2026, the focus will shift from GDP energy consumption to carbon emissions as a binding indicator, which will benefit wind and solar energy in the long term [2]. - The introduction of new policies, including mechanisms for guaranteed pricing for over 80% of incremental projects, is expected to enhance the integration and development of renewable energy sources [2]. - The report anticipates a short-term decline in new PV installations to between 200-250 GW due to new electricity pricing policies, but long-term growth is expected to be driven by carbon neutrality goals, cost reduction technologies, and grid upgrades [2]. Group 2: Industry Trends and Innovations - The ongoing "involution" reforms are expected to lead to a recovery in profitability for the PV industry by 2026, with signs of improvement potentially visible in Q2 2026. The integration and acquisition platform for polysilicon production capacity is expected to facilitate the exit of excess capacity [3]. - The price of polysilicon has increased by approximately 20%, with new quotes rising to around 65,000 RMB per ton, while the prices for silicon wafers and batteries have also shown signs of recovery [3]. - The report emphasizes the importance of diversifying cost-reduction strategies, including the development of technologies such as silver-coated copper and copper paste, which are expected to gain traction in the market [4].