今年全球最“神奇”的资产？30年期美国国债！

Core Viewpoint - The 30-year U.S. Treasury bond has shown remarkable resilience in 2025, maintaining its value despite significant market turbulence and not experiencing any price increase throughout the year [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The price of the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond has remained nearly flat compared to the beginning of the year, despite expectations of rising long-term bond yields due to various economic factors [3][6]. - The yield curve for U.S. Treasury bonds has steepened, with the 2-year/30-year spread reaching its steepest in four years, primarily driven by short-term rate changes [4]. - In contrast to other international bonds, U.S. long-term bonds have performed relatively well, even as the dollar depreciated by nearly 10% [4]. Group 2: Demand and Auction Results - Strong demand from institutional investors such as pension funds, mutual funds, and insurance companies has supported the 30-year Treasury bond, as these entities seek to match long-term liabilities with long-term assets [8][9]. - The U.S. Treasury successfully conducted 12 auctions of 30-year bonds this year, raising a total of $276 billion, with an average bid-to-cover ratio of 2.37, consistent with historical averages [9]. Group 3: Future Challenges - Despite the strong performance of long-term U.S. bonds this year, they are expected to face significant challenges in the coming year, including rising risk premiums, inflation risks, and increased debt supply [10]. - Concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve and doubts about the productivity prospects of artificial intelligence may further complicate the outlook for 30-year bonds [10].