Bonhoeffer Capital Management Q3 2025 Letter

Core Insights - Bonhoeffer Fund is strategically selling slower-growth firms while acquiring durable, faster-growing firms in temporarily depressed sectors, aligning with long-term growth themes [3] - The portfolio is diversified with a focus on banks, insurance, natural resource royalties, logistics, housing, and specialty finance, with new investments expected to yield a growth rate of 30-40% [3][6] - The fund's performance in Q3 2025 showed a gain of 1.3%, underperforming compared to major indices like MSCI World ex-US and S&P 500 [6][7] Portfolio Overview - As of September 30, 2025, the portfolio's largest country exposures are the United States (71%), Canada (11%), South Korea (7%), Peru (7%), and Greece (3%) [8] - The largest industry exposures include distribution (52%), real estate/infrastructure/finance (62%), and consumer products (7%) [8][11] Investment Themes - The distribution theme includes high-velocity firms in car dealerships and building product distributors, with a focus on inventory turns [11] - The real estate/construction/finance segment is driven by infrastructure programs and housing development, with banks meeting specific growth criteria [15][16] - Public leveraged buyouts (LBOs) focus on firms that create growth through acquisitions, benefiting from operational leverage [18][19] Case Study: Fairfax Financial - Fairfax Financial utilizes insurance float to finance a balanced portfolio, with a decentralized business model allowing for strategic acquisitions [38][39] - The company has shown significant improvement in underwriting discipline, with combined ratios declining from 107% to 91% since 2009 [38] - Fairfax's investment portfolio, valued at $67.4 billion, primarily consists of bonds (74%) and equities (26%), generating a historical return of 7.7% per year [40] Financial Metrics - Fairfax's return on equity (RoE) target is 15%, with a current cost of float at -3.2% per year [33][40] - The company has four levers for earnings growth: acquisitions, expanding underwriting, investment portfolio growth, and stock repurchases [41] - The expected growth rate for Fairfax is estimated at 7% per year, with a target share value of $3,225, representing an 88% upside from current prices [53][58]